Will Lionel Messi Win the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot?

TL;DR: Lionel Messi is the early top scorer at the 2026 World Cup with 3 goals after a hat-trick against Algeria, but he is not the betting favorite for the Golden Boot. As of June 18, 2026, Harry Kane (+310) leads the market after his brace, with Kylian Mbappé (+550) next and Messi around +1200 as the third choice. Messi's path depends heavily on how deep Argentina go in the tournament.

Table of Contents

1. Quick answer: is Messi the favorite?
2. 2026 World Cup top scorers
3. Golden Boot odds
4. What stands in Messi's way
5. FAQ

Last updated: June 18, 2026

Quick answer: is Messi the favorite?

He is the current top scorer, but not the bookmakers' favorite. Messi exploded into the tournament with a hat-trick in Argentina's 3-0 win over Algeria, putting him clear at the top of the goal chart with 3. However, the Golden Boot market favors forwards on teams expected to play the most games — and at 38, Messi's biggest obstacle is simply how many matches Argentina will play.

2026 World Cup top scorers (Matchday 1)

Player	Team	Goals
Lionel Messi	Argentina	3
Erling Haaland	Norway	2
Kylian Mbappé	France	2
Harry Kane	England	2
Kai Havertz	Germany	2
Folarin Balogun	USA	2

Golden Boot odds

Player	Golden Boot odds
Harry Kane	+310
Kylian Mbappé	+550
Lionel Messi	+1200
Erling Haaland	+1400

Kane jumped to favorite after his brace against Croatia (from around +950 pre-tournament). Messi's hat-trick shortened his odds dramatically, but the market still rates Kane and Mbappé ahead of him.

The Golden Boot tie-break favors assists first, then total minutes played — another reason teams expected to reach the latter stages hold the edge.

What stands in Messi's way

To win the Golden Boot, Messi likely needs Argentina to reach at least the semi-finals so he has the games to keep scoring. The defending champions are among the favorites, which keeps him firmly in contention. Separately, his hat-trick moved him level with Miroslav Klose on 16 career World Cup goals — the all-time record — adding a second storyline to his tournament.

See the full title and player picture in our World Cup 2026 predictions guide. Daily AI predictions for every match are on the AI football predictions hub and today's predictions; follow games on the live scores page.

Frequently asked questions

Is Messi leading the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot race? Yes, by goals — he has 3, one clear of a group of players on 2. But he is the third choice in the betting market behind Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappé.

How many goals does Messi have at the 2026 World Cup? Three, all from his hat-trick against Algeria on Matchday 1.

Who is the Golden Boot favorite? Harry Kane at +310 as of June 18, 2026, after scoring twice against Croatia.

How is the Golden Boot decided if players are tied? By goals first, then assists, then fewest minutes played.